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How Many Predictions do I Need to Use for a Valid Test of a Guidon?

Don't worry - we've done the math.

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Terminology:

Lift: Model's Predicted Power/Lift

Baseline: Your campaign's historical response rate OR the expected "B" response rate in an A/B test.  

Sample Size Tables

  Predicted Lift
Baseline Response Rate 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95
0.01 810000 183339 90495 58880 35627 26980 20468 18452 14275 11079 8625 8163 6476 6154 4956 5406 4417 4105 2964
0.015 484989 131213 69619 42686 27948 21263 16212 12390 9493 7293 5617 5765 5752 4615 3716 3001 3018 2463 2428
0.02 346234 117252 52210 29072 22189 16977 13022 10015 7725 5976 4638 5036 2821 3211 2577 2777 2263 1847 1924
0.025 322169 90029 44417 23271 17871 13762 10629 8234 6399 4990 3903 3064 3608 2908 2352 1907 2138 1754 1443
0.03 231622 82178 38573 24799 14633 11352 8834 6898 5405 4249 3352 2654 2109 2681 2183 1781 1457 1685 1391
0.035 223713 59537 27173 21536 12204 9544 7489 5897 4659 3694 2939 2346 1880 2510 2056 1687 1386 1140 1352
0.04 207782 63499 23887 13212 10383 8189 6480 5146 4100 3278 2629 2116 1708 2383 1961 1616 746 1101 911
0.045 183335 43434 21423 11378 9018 7172 5723 4582 3681 2966 2397 1943 1579 1287 1051 1563 1294 1072 889
0.05 170000 40951 19575 15880 7994 6410 5156 4160 3366 2732 2223 1813 1483 1215 998 1523 1264 1050 873
                                       

 

  Predicted Lift
Baseline Response Rate 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00
0.01 3135 3163 2865 2384 2493 1943 2085 2046 1715 1706 1730 1533 1323 1338 1311 1084 1103 852 996 997 931
0.015 2351 2227 1846 1737 1784 1492 1117 1234 1202 1279 1194 990 951 810 845 842 822 732 659 660 610
0.02 1590 1598 1566 1099 1083 1048 986 925 943 854 836 693 703 669 670 578 561 545 547 444 490
0.025 1538 1271 1053 1078 1067 893 740 819 770 710 657 593 619 528 495 553 421 459 448 408 390
0.03 1154 953 790 859 885 741 614 614 599 638 537 543 495 422 349 385 420 374 378 300 300
0.035 1125 931 774 847 536 734 609 610 512 496 417 444 453 421 349 312 320 306 280 312 260
0.04 757 626 762 635 700 443 606 508 426 424 416 394 329 351 349 312 260 289 252 264 240
0.045 740 614 753 629 525 440 484 506 424 353 297 344 370 316 261 216 240 238 238 216 190
0.05 728 605 746 624 521 437 482 404 423 352 296 295 288 245 261 240 220 204 168 192 190

 

Learn more in How to View Predictions or How to Evaluate a Custom Guidon. If you have any questions, contact us at success@boodle.ai.